This website is used for posting daily business rants about the global economy, encouraging a political tailspin to each opinion. All points of view are welcome and will not be controlled by a moderator’s point of view. The blog supports business points of view from the Right (Conservative), Left (Liberal) and Independent political paradigms allowing guest authors to express their opinions regarding a potential upcoming recession.
The authors of this blog vehemently predict a recession coming in 2026, and spiralling downwards in the months, quarters and years to follow. We request our authors to articulate their economic predictions backed by objective, factual events or statements.
NoFluffBizRants
Please post below with factual, objective points that support your subjective point of view.
The Federal Reserve stating that stocks were “fairly highly valued” should provide some insight into the trajectory of the stock market. The Fed is cognizant that Inflation is increasing, unemployment is increasing and the further rate cuts will further destabilize the economy.
The cornerstone of the decision to cut interest rates is the Fed’s opinion on BOTH Inflation and Unemployment statistics, both of which are going in the wrong direction. The nomenclature spewed by the Federal Reserve today showcased nervousness, indecisiveness and the component the markets hate the most….
Suns Up, Funs Up. This ingloriious overinflated stock market sham is about to be exposed.
AI is not helping the broader economy, it’s hurting the few vulnerable customer support roles that can be replaced by machines.
in 2008 didn’t we learn what happens when the unemployment rate and inflation risks catch up to the Stock market?
The brokers and retail traders danced all summer long to an AI – artificially inflated stock market, and the manifestation of their actions will force them to reflect on their self-indulgant behavior…..
The recent AI bubble has me questioning whether the stock market is really acting in a prudent matter to all the inflated stock prices.
Is Artificial Intelligence taking over the world or are these artificial earnings?
Do you need AI to conduct any of the basic core necessities in life? Eating, drinking, housing, mating, driving…. Even non-essentials like searching the internet or writing a paper for school or work?
AI is great for accomplishing repetitive tasks by a machine that human beings have normally completed. AI does not solve any of the core necessities of life. It’s a nice to have, not a need to have.
AI is currently the prettiest girl in the ballroom with the stock market ogling anything AI related. As our economy starts to lose permanent jobs replaced by machine robots, we will quickly realize that none of our core essentials were solved with AI and in contrast the core essentials of life were damaged by AI due to the labor loss. The prettiest girl in the ballroom will morph into an old, wrinkled witch with tons of complaints before our very eyes during the Halloween season and the stock market will crash.
The “bad news” interest rate cuts were injected into the economy today decreasing the federal fund rate to 4%-4.25%.
Why would an interest rate cut be bad for the economy and soon the stock market?
-A 25 basis point cut won’t impact Borrowing much, but it does signal that the Fed is nervous about the economy, effectively promoting a rate cut.
-Inflation is still increasing. The decision to cut the federal fund rate as inflation is rising is an oddball move that will have cascading impacts to our economic balance.
-We are at an inflection point that we are at a crossroads where the bad economy is about to catch up to the stock market.
-The AI bubble can’t will burst, and China pushing back on adopting NVDIA’s chips are the turning point.
-Most important! The unemployment rate is gradually climbing, most likely a result of AI stealing customer support and repetitive task jobs. Blue collar jobs are now the stable labour market.
The end of the 3 rd quarter is when the economy is going to catch up to the artificially inflated stock market.
As evidenced by the 2008 crash, the number 1 reason the markets start to crash is an financial risk uncertainty. The recent 7-4 decision by a Federal Appellate court to reverse the tariffs instituted in the 2nd quarter fused with the decision to lift de minimis exemption is going to introduce a tremendous amount of confusion and spiraling uncertainty after the Labor day weekend.
In the Federal Appellate Court rule, the US Court of International Trade (CIT) on Friday, 8/29/25 stated:
“We affirm the CIT’s holding that the trafficking and reciprocal tariffs imposed by the challenged executive orders exceed the authority delegated to the President,” the majority held in the ruling. “We also affirm the CIT’s grant of declaratory relief that the orders are ‘invalid as contrary to law.’”
The words Congress commonly uses when giving the President tariff authority (“duty,” “tariff,” etc.) are not in IEEPA and that Congress typically requires the President to adhere to various procedural and substantive requirements in tariff statutes.
IEEPA is a very broadly-worded statute empowering the president to “deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States, if the president declares a national emergency with respect to such threat.” Often invoked by presidents in levying economic sanctions against foreign states and actors, IEEPA also empowers the president to “regulate … importation.”
Similar to a 1975 court looking at tariffs Nixon imposed under IEEPA’s predecessor statute in 1971, the Federal Circuit suggested that any IEEPA tariffs would need to be far more bounded than what Trump has in fact done.
Fe-fi-fo-fum, I smell the blood of summer 25 skyrocketing stock market momentum!
The end is here. the werewolf ignites the Bear; Bad moon on the rise!
Goldman Sach’s CEO and chief economist predicted the economy was going to start to turn due to the high tariffs.
Goldman Sach’s throws caution to the recent stock market rally over the past 4 months stating: “If the most recent tariffs, like the April tariff, follow the same pattern that we’ve seen with those earliest February tariffs, then eventually, by the fall, we estimate that consumers would bear about two-thirds of the cost.”
The combination of a very soft job reports 2 weeks ago and the increasing cost of all consumer goods is a highly unstable concoction that will slowly wreak havoc on the stock market for months and potentially years to come.
“I don’t think this will matter a whole lot to the Fed, because now they have a labor market to worry about, and I think that’s going to be the dominant concern.”
The Feds can drop their rates in September, but that’s not going to produce the massive consumer mortgage loans and corporate business borrowing that is anticipated.
Goldman predicts that the Bad Moon is Rising in the upcoming months:
Creedence Clearwater: 1969.
I see the bad moon rising I see trouble’s on the way I see earthquakes and lightnin’ I see bad times today
Ah, don’t go ’round tonight Well, it’s bound to take your life There’s a bad moon on the rise
I hear hurricane’s a-blowin’ I know the end is comin’ soon I feel a river’s overflowin’ I hear the voice of rage and ruin
Wednesday – July 30th, 2025 – The Feds did not cut rates today because they know what most economists already know:
The recent tariffs introduced are going to push up prices, and ultimately increase inflation. Tariffs == New Taxes, very simple formula. Sales taxes on imports where the consumers are the passthrough $.75 on the dollar.
The big beautiful betrayal bill is only created to enrich billionaires. The impact of this bill will impact the lower and middle class directly after food and retail prices start skyrocket. The tariffs themselves will not be paid for by the countries who agreed to those tariffs. Instead they will be paid for by the average consumer.
The larger population will realize this reality in August, September and the final quarter of the year when food, clothes, laundry, household cleaning prices actually increase. The overinflated stock market will react to the elevated CPI and increase inflation. It’s synonymous to a case of the snake swallowing the rodent. There’s not enough AI propoganda to intercept the upcoming recession.
Q3 2025 is here: This is the tipping point of the market entering a long-term depression. The banality of cruelty of the Big Beautiful bill will eat away at the stock market gains of May and June like a cancer. This bill is big, but far from beautiful as it will increase the national debt by $3 billion dollars.
The financial impact this bill will have on those who rely on healthcare will have an catastrophic impact to the HealthCare systems who are forced to take in uninsured medicare patients.
All this doom and gloom propoganda on this blog about a recession under the new Administration is a bunch of bs. The US Economy just hit stock market highs in May 2025 erasing any of the losses in the first couple of months of this year. The GDP rose 4.6% in May.
The Trump administration inherited terrible economic policies from the fools working with Biden Administration signing orders with an autopen. Biden was clueless and DOGE exposed frightening waste, fraud and abuse and immediately corrected it in the first couple of months of the new administration.
There is no recession coming. We are now in control of our tarriff policy with the International community and the US will reach wealth consumption never imagined.
With a wide grin on his face, Anthropic’s CEO, Dario Amodei the dominance of AI is currently eliminating entry level jobs and positions that are repetitive in nature. While this author will not report Darios, highly subjective percentage estimates, what is valuable to note are the jobs that he is pinpointing will be eliminated….Jobs that a machine which does not contribute to economies GDP.
AI is not only the future, it is here now and is having an impact on job production and job losses in all sectors of the US economy. This is another factor that will have a tsunami effect on the stock market in Q3 of this year.
NoFluffBizRants 