NoFluffBizRants

This website is used for posting daily business rants about the global economy, encouraging a political tailspin to each opinion. All points of view are welcome and will not be controlled by a moderator’s point of view. The blog supports business points of view from the Right (Conservative), Left (Liberal) and Independent political paradigms allowing guest authors to express their opinions regarding a potential upcoming recession.

The authors of this blog vehemently predict a recession coming in 2026, and spiralling downwards in the months, quarters and years to follow. We request our authors to articulate their economic predictions backed by objective, factual events or statements.

NoFluffBizRants

Please post below with factual, objective points that support your subjective point of view.

  • Government Shutdown Coming

    The imminent federal government shutdown is less than 24 hours away and it will have a catastrophic impact on the stock market in the last quarter of this year.

    Government shutdowns do not normally have a direct impact on the stock market as the eventual re-opening of the government is always factored in.

    Why would this government shutdown be different? and why would this have an impact on the Stock Market? 1 Answer:

    Labor Market and Increasing Unemployment

    Unemployment is already growing. Federal employees have already been laid off in droves earlier in the year. This government shutdown will have further impact to Federal employees, many of whom reside in the Washington, DC and the larger Virginia area.

    Combine the Government shutdown with the growing consumer pricing as a result of the tariffs, the recipe produces a very grim 4th quarter.

    The lack of spending and increasing unemployment is occuring at the worst time of the year: Holiday season when the global retail market is expecting spending to increase.

    The trends in the recent unemployment statistics have a direct correlation to the trends we experienced in 2008.

  • “Responsibly Bullish” or BullSHIT responsibly?

    Last week, Tony Pasquarello, Hedge fund leader of Goldman Sachs informed us to be “Responsibly Bullish” on the stock market. This is the equivalent of saying: “You can buy this car with over 100,000 miles and it PROBABLY won’t break down on you.” This remark is a hedge in and of itself, its essentially saying: I think the stock market will go up, but I’m not guaranteeing it, so be “responsible”.

    This is everything that is wrong with corporate finance: You hear one thing, but don’t really understand the fine print hidden in the message.

    This author understands that this comment is a sham and proper representation of how to……

    BULLSHIT responsibly

    If you want a more prudent perspective on what will occur with the stock market listen to Tom Stevenson of Fidelity International:

    “A stock market crash is right around the corner.”

  • Treasury Yields Skyrocket Stock Market

    The major stock indexes broke multiple records over the past couple months due to the lowering Treasuring Yields. All the banter on this blog that the stock market will crash is just a bunch pessimism from negative nellies who are upset with the election results on 2024. Face the reality….the stock market will continue to break records.

  • Fed Undecisive on Interest Rates

    The Federal Reserve stating that stocks were “fairly highly valued” should provide some insight into the trajectory of the stock market. The Fed is cognizant that Inflation is increasing, unemployment is increasing and the further rate cuts will further destabilize the economy.

    The cornerstone of the decision to cut interest rates is the Fed’s opinion on BOTH Inflation and Unemployment statistics, both of which are going in the wrong direction. The nomenclature spewed by the Federal Reserve today showcased nervousness, indecisiveness and the component the markets hate the most….

    UNCERTAINTY!

  • Time to pay the piper

    Suns Up, Funs Up. This ingloriious overinflated stock market sham is about to be exposed.

    AI is not helping the broader economy, it’s hurting the few vulnerable customer support roles that can be replaced by machines.

    in 2008 didn’t we learn what happens when the unemployment rate and inflation risks catch up to the Stock market?

    The brokers and retail traders danced all summer long to an AI – artificially inflated stock market, and the manifestation of their actions will force them to reflect on their self-indulgant behavior…..

    IT’S TIME TO PAY THE PIPER!

  • Artificial Intelligence or Artificial Earnings?

    The recent AI bubble has me questioning whether the stock market is really acting in a prudent matter to all the inflated stock prices.

    Is Artificial Intelligence taking over the world or are these artificial earnings?

    Do you need AI to conduct any of the basic core necessities in life? Eating, drinking, housing, mating, driving…. Even non-essentials like searching the internet or writing a paper for school or work?

    AI is great for accomplishing repetitive tasks by a machine that human beings have normally completed. AI does not solve any of the core necessities of life. It’s a nice to have, not a need to have.

    AI is currently the prettiest girl in the ballroom with the stock market ogling anything AI related. As our economy starts to lose permanent jobs replaced by machine robots, we will quickly realize that none of our core essentials were solved with AI and in contrast the core essentials of life were damaged by AI due to the labor loss. The prettiest girl in the ballroom will morph into an old, wrinkled witch with tons of complaints before our very eyes during the Halloween season and the stock market will crash.

  • “Bad News” Cuts Injected

    The “bad news” interest rate cuts were injected into the economy today decreasing the federal fund rate to 4%-4.25%.

    Why would an interest rate cut be bad for the economy and soon the stock market?

    -A 25 basis point cut won’t impact Borrowing much, but it does signal that the Fed is nervous about the economy, effectively promoting a rate cut.

    -Inflation is still increasing. The decision to cut the federal fund rate as inflation is rising is an oddball move that will have cascading impacts to our economic balance.

    -We are at an inflection point that we are at a crossroads where the bad economy is about to catch up to the stock market.

    -The AI bubble can’t will burst, and China pushing back on adopting NVDIA’s chips are the turning point.

    -Most important! The unemployment rate is gradually climbing, most likely a result of AI stealing customer support and repetitive task jobs. Blue collar jobs are now the stable labour market.

    The end of the 3 rd quarter is when the economy is going to catch up to the artificially inflated stock market.

    Let your Love Flow – Bellamy Brothers

  • Blue Moon: Tariffs Confusion and Uncertainty.

    As evidenced by the 2008 crash, the number 1 reason the markets start to crash is an financial risk uncertainty. The recent 7-4 decision by a Federal Appellate court to reverse the tariffs instituted in the 2nd quarter fused with the decision to lift de minimis exemption is going to introduce a tremendous amount of confusion and spiraling uncertainty after the Labor day weekend.

    In the Federal Appellate Court rule, the US Court of International Trade (CIT) on Friday, 8/29/25 stated:

    “We affirm the CIT’s holding that the trafficking and reciprocal tariffs imposed by the challenged executive orders exceed the authority delegated to the President,” the majority held in the ruling. “We also affirm the CIT’s grant of declaratory relief that the orders are ‘invalid as contrary to law.’”

    The words Congress commonly uses when giving the President tariff authority (“duty,” “tariff,” etc.) are not in IEEPA and that Congress typically requires the President to adhere to various procedural and substantive requirements in tariff statutes.

    IEEPA is a very broadly-worded statute empowering the president to “deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States, if the president declares a national emergency with respect to such threat.” Often invoked by presidents in levying economic sanctions against foreign states and actors, IEEPA also empowers the president to “regulate … importation.”

    Similar to a 1975 court looking at tariffs Nixon imposed under IEEPA’s predecessor statute in 1971, the Federal Circuit suggested that any IEEPA tariffs would need to be far more bounded than what Trump has in fact done.

    Fe-fi-fo-fum, I smell the blood of summer 25 skyrocketing stock market momentum!

    The end is here. the werewolf ignites the Bear; Bad moon on the rise!

    1. Bad Moon Rising predicts Goldman Sachs

      Goldman Sach’s CEO and chief economist predicted the economy was going to start to turn due to the high tariffs.

      Goldman Sach’s throws caution to the recent stock market rally over the past 4 months stating: “If the most recent tariffs, like the April tariff, follow the same pattern that we’ve seen with those earliest February tariffs, then eventually, by the fall, we estimate that consumers would bear about two-thirds of the cost.”

      The combination of a very soft job reports 2 weeks ago and the increasing cost of all consumer goods is a highly unstable concoction that will slowly wreak havoc on the stock market for months and potentially years to come.

      “I don’t think this will matter a whole lot to the Fed, because now they have a labor market to worry about, and I think that’s going to be the dominant concern.”

      The Feds can drop their rates in September, but that’s not going to produce the massive consumer mortgage loans and corporate business borrowing that is anticipated.

      Goldman predicts that the Bad Moon is Rising in the upcoming months:

      Creedence Clearwater: 1969.

      I see the bad moon rising
      I see trouble’s on the way
      I see earthquakes and lightnin’
      I see bad times today

      Ah, don’t go ’round tonight
      Well, it’s bound to take your life
      There’s a bad moon on the rise

      I hear hurricane’s a-blowin’
      I know the end is comin’ soon
      I feel a river’s overflowin’
      I hear the voice of rage and ruin

    2. Feds Don’t Cut Rates

      Wednesday – July 30th, 2025 – The Feds did not cut rates today because they know what most economists already know:

      The recent tariffs introduced are going to push up prices, and ultimately increase inflation. Tariffs == New Taxes, very simple formula. Sales taxes on imports where the consumers are the passthrough $.75 on the dollar.

      The big beautiful betrayal bill is only created to enrich billionaires. The impact of this bill will impact the lower and middle class directly after food and retail prices start skyrocket. The tariffs themselves will not be paid for by the countries who agreed to those tariffs. Instead they will be paid for by the average consumer.

      The larger population will realize this reality in August, September and the final quarter of the year when food, clothes, laundry, household cleaning prices actually increase. The overinflated stock market will react to the elevated CPI and increase inflation. It’s synonymous to a case of the snake swallowing the rodent. There’s not enough AI propoganda to intercept the upcoming recession.