The AI stocks are spent.
We’ll see how long US-China trade negotiations materialize.
Government Shutdown consequences get real next week
UnEmployment statistics unveiled….. Spooky….
AI Decimating the Work force.
November – Vietnam month
NoFluffBizRants
Please post below with factual, objective points that support your subjective point of view.
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Unemployment Statistics?
With the recent US Government shutdown the public has not received the unemployment statistics. Do we really expect the unemployment stats to improve with AI decimating the labor market more and more every month? How does the impact of laying off and furloughing government employees impact the unemployment statistics?
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“We’ll never yield”
As we embark on the upcoming US-China trade war negotiations its important to understand China’s mindset entering a war of any kind.
China will not back down on the negotiations points, specifically export controls on rare earth minerals and resulting tariffs China plans to inherit as a result.
China is adopting the foreign direct product rule, to restrict China’s access to US software. Recently China published their export controls in a WPS format making it impossible for anyone outside China to open the document.
While the US has been very optimisitic about making a fair trade deal to the media, there are some undercurrents to suggest otherwise:
-Make a deal with Australia for rare earth materials as a backup if the China deal does not workout.
-Laying out the terms of the deal in public media as opposed to behind closed doors. Maybe China is not interested in having behind closed doors meeting.
-China did not seem overly thrilled about their perception of time hacking backed by irrefutable evidence.
-China re-opening discussions about invading Taiwan for their rare-earth minerals. Interesting fact, the head of Nvidia is from Taiwan and China has banned use of all Nvidia chips sold in China.
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US-China Trade War: Critical 4 weeks ahead!
Much of the future of this years stock and bond market outlook, as well as next years (2026) trajectory is dependent on the trade negotiations with China.
Scott Bessent is meeting with the Chinese government to soften the recent tone ahead of next week’s critical meeting with the US and China top leaders.
If things go well, the stock market will surge. If things don’t go well, the triple digit tariffs go into effect, and the stock market will tank (see 10/10/25 results). Very simple.
The real question is: How does the recent allegations coming from the China government impact the sentiment of the negotiations?
We will know by mid November.
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Open AI – AI Overhyped?
Open AI does produce valuable Generative AI tools that we all find valuable. But is it irreplaceable? and is it really as valuable as all the money being poured into it? Why can’t over companies like Anthropic or the many AI companies created now replace the Gen AI features outputted from the Chat GPT engine?
The real question is: Does Open AI currently turn a profit?
The San Francisco-based company has not yet turned a profit. With all the money poured into Open AI, it could also amplify concerns about an AI bubble if the generative AI products made by OpenAI and its competitors don’t meet the expectations of investors pouring billions of dollars into research and development.
There is no major life function: eating, sleeping, drinking, mating that Open AI remotely solves. It’s a nice to have that makes automated processes more efficient.
The near future over the next 2 to 3 years will answer the question regarding whether these investments into Open AI will payoff, or generate massive write-offs on the balance sheets of the companies investing.
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US-China war confirmed
Today the US-China war was confirmed. Earnings season was overall positive this week. Watch how the next earnings season plays out. China will not give up or give in. This whole showdown was procrastinated dating back to April. It’s on!
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Top Economists predict market crash coming
Both Andrew Ross Sorkin and Jamie Dimon, Chase CEO have both predicted a stock market crash and “major correction” coming shortly.
Sorkin compares the situation in 1929 to the current market:
As of mid-October 2025, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, believes the US market is at a higher risk of a significant correction than others perceive. He cites multiple factors, including high valuations, geopolitical tensions, and an uncertain economic outlook, as reasons for his concern.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/jamie-dimon-warns-major-market-risk-next-few-years
If you are in long positions, GET OUT before the tidal wave hits shores!
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China Countermeasures?
China retaliated with the threat of “countermeasures” in response to the future trade wars. Revisit China’s long history regarding how committed they are to not feeling like they are bullied by anyone to get a glimpse of how long this will last in the years ahead. To truly understand China’s importance on the US and global economy, one needs to fully understand the magnitude of China’s impact to the national debt and the production of consumer goods made in China.
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China Tariff’s – The straw that broke the camels back
The recent enforcements on China to levy “massive tariffs” was the triggering event for repercussions we are about to see in the stock market for the next 2 years. The stock market has been on a historic tear for the past 5 months, dating back to April 4th when the market tanked as a result of the tariff introduction. The real question we have to ask ourselves is: Did we really resolve the fear of the tariffs dating back to early April or did we just “kick the can” for 5 months and let AI enthusiasm dictate the market surge? No more room to kick the can when you’ve kicked it as far as it can go on a dead end ally. As Jamie Dimon correctly predicted, a major correction is in store for the stock markets. Time to face the music!
NoFluffBizRants 