NoFluffBizRants

This website is used for posting daily business rants about the global economy, encouraging a political tailspin to each opinion. All points of view are welcome and will not be controlled by a moderator’s point of view. The blog supports business points of view from the Right (Conservative), Left (Liberal) and Independent political paradigms allowing guest authors to express their opinions regarding a potential upcoming recession.

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The authors of this blog vehemently predict a recession coming in 2026, and spiralling downwards in the months, quarters and years to follow. We request our authors to articulate their economic predictions backed by objective, factual events or statements. If you are interested in posting your economic political point of view to this site, please contact AppTouri.

NoFluffBizRants

Please post below with factual, objective points that support your subjective point of view.

  • “Bad News” Cuts Injected

    The “bad news” interest rate cuts were injected into the economy today decreasing the federal fund rate to 4%-4.25%.

    Why would an interest rate cut be bad for the economy and soon the stock market?

    -A 25 basis point cut won’t impact Borrowing much, but it does signal that the Fed is nervous about the economy, effectively promoting a rate cut.

    -Inflation is still increasing. The decision to cut the federal fund rate as inflation is rising is an oddball move that will have cascading impacts to our economic balance.

    -We are at an inflection point that we are at a crossroads where the bad economy is about to catch up to the stock market.

    -The AI bubble can’t will burst, and China pushing back on adopting NVDIA’s chips are the turning point.

    -Most important! The unemployment rate is gradually climbing, most likely a result of AI stealing customer support and repetitive task jobs. Blue collar jobs are now the stable labour market.

    The end of the 3 rd quarter is when the economy is going to catch up to the artificially inflated stock market.

    Let your Love Flow – Bellamy Brothers

  • Blue Moon: Tariffs Confusion and Uncertainty.

    As evidenced by the 2008 crash, the number 1 reason the markets start to crash is an financial risk uncertainty. The recent 7-4 decision by a Federal Appellate court to reverse the tariffs instituted in the 2nd quarter fused with the decision to lift de minimis exemption is going to introduce a tremendous amount of confusion and spiraling uncertainty after the Labor day weekend.

    In the Federal Appellate Court rule, the US Court of International Trade (CIT) on Friday, 8/29/25 stated:

    “We affirm the CIT’s holding that the trafficking and reciprocal tariffs imposed by the challenged executive orders exceed the authority delegated to the President,” the majority held in the ruling. “We also affirm the CIT’s grant of declaratory relief that the orders are ‘invalid as contrary to law.’”

    The words Congress commonly uses when giving the President tariff authority (“duty,” “tariff,” etc.) are not in IEEPA and that Congress typically requires the President to adhere to various procedural and substantive requirements in tariff statutes.

    IEEPA is a very broadly-worded statute empowering the president to “deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States, if the president declares a national emergency with respect to such threat.” Often invoked by presidents in levying economic sanctions against foreign states and actors, IEEPA also empowers the president to “regulate … importation.”

    Similar to a 1975 court looking at tariffs Nixon imposed under IEEPA’s predecessor statute in 1971, the Federal Circuit suggested that any IEEPA tariffs would need to be far more bounded than what Trump has in fact done.

    Fe-fi-fo-fum, I smell the blood of summer 25 skyrocketing stock market momentum!

    The end is here. the werewolf ignites the Bear; Bad moon on the rise!

    1. Bad Moon Rising predicts Goldman Sachs

      Goldman Sach’s CEO and chief economist predicted the economy was going to start to turn due to the high tariffs.

      Goldman Sach’s throws caution to the recent stock market rally over the past 4 months stating: “If the most recent tariffs, like the April tariff, follow the same pattern that we’ve seen with those earliest February tariffs, then eventually, by the fall, we estimate that consumers would bear about two-thirds of the cost.”

      The combination of a very soft job reports 2 weeks ago and the increasing cost of all consumer goods is a highly unstable concoction that will slowly wreak havoc on the stock market for months and potentially years to come.

      “I don’t think this will matter a whole lot to the Fed, because now they have a labor market to worry about, and I think that’s going to be the dominant concern.”

      The Feds can drop their rates in September, but that’s not going to produce the massive consumer mortgage loans and corporate business borrowing that is anticipated.

      Goldman predicts that the Bad Moon is Rising in the upcoming months:

      Creedence Clearwater: 1969.

      I see the bad moon rising
      I see trouble’s on the way
      I see earthquakes and lightnin’
      I see bad times today

      Ah, don’t go ’round tonight
      Well, it’s bound to take your life
      There’s a bad moon on the rise

      I hear hurricane’s a-blowin’
      I know the end is comin’ soon
      I feel a river’s overflowin’
      I hear the voice of rage and ruin

    2. Feds Don’t Cut Rates

      Wednesday – July 30th, 2025 – The Feds did not cut rates today because they know what most economists already know:

      The recent tariffs introduced are going to push up prices, and ultimately increase inflation. Tariffs == New Taxes, very simple formula. Sales taxes on imports where the consumers are the passthrough $.75 on the dollar.

      The big beautiful betrayal bill is only created to enrich billionaires. The impact of this bill will impact the lower and middle class directly after food and retail prices start skyrocket. The tariffs themselves will not be paid for by the countries who agreed to those tariffs. Instead they will be paid for by the average consumer.

      The larger population will realize this reality in August, September and the final quarter of the year when food, clothes, laundry, household cleaning prices actually increase. The overinflated stock market will react to the elevated CPI and increase inflation. It’s synonymous to a case of the snake swallowing the rodent. There’s not enough AI propoganda to intercept the upcoming recession.

    3. Q3 is Here! The bill is BIG, but not beautiful!

      Q3 2025 is here: This is the tipping point of the market entering a long-term depression. The banality of cruelty of the Big Beautiful bill will eat away at the stock market gains of May and June like a cancer. This bill is big, but far from beautiful as it will increase the national debt by $3 billion dollars.

      The financial impact this bill will have on those who rely on healthcare will have an catastrophic impact to the HealthCare systems who are forced to take in uninsured medicare patients.

    4. Market Highs hit in May 2025

      All this doom and gloom propoganda on this blog about a recession under the new Administration is a bunch of bs. The US Economy just hit stock market highs in May 2025 erasing any of the losses in the first couple of months of this year. The GDP rose 4.6% in May.

      The Trump administration inherited terrible economic policies from the fools working with Biden Administration signing orders with an autopen. Biden was clueless and DOGE exposed frightening waste, fraud and abuse and immediately corrected it in the first couple of months of the new administration.

      There is no recession coming. We are now in control of our tarriff policy with the International community and the US will reach wealth consumption never imagined.

    5. AI Dominance Here to Stay

      With a wide grin on his face, Anthropic’s CEO, Dario Amodei the dominance of AI is currently eliminating entry level jobs and positions that are repetitive in nature. While this author will not report Darios, highly subjective percentage estimates, what is valuable to note are the jobs that he is pinpointing will be eliminated….Jobs that a machine which does not contribute to economies GDP.

      AI is not only the future, it is here now and is having an impact on job production and job losses in all sectors of the US economy. This is another factor that will have a tsunami effect on the stock market in Q3 of this year.

    6. Q3 Coming Soon – Tariff Bonanaza

      Thank you to all who have contributed to this blog over the past couple of months. Quarter 3 starts on July 1st, 2025. With the recent tariff threats placed on the EU and the looming situation with China which is current on an 90 day interim hold, does any think these two events will not have a major impact on the stock market this summer?

      Combine the devaluing of the US dollar and the resulting impact this is having on treasury yields, this blog predicts the recession is coming in the third quarter of this year.

      Additionally, the unemployment benefits of all the federal employees who were laid off 3 months ago with DOGE’s cuts will start to run out shortly. The private sector is in a stagnant state of significant job growth due to the increasing presence of AI technologies replacing the need for human beings.

      Take a note where the economy starts on July 1st, 2025 and where it ends on September 30th, 2025.

    7. Cruel Summer Recession Coming

      After hearing an interview from from Apollo Management today, this author thinks this blog has a point related to a recession coming in the summer.

      Appollo Management’s point was that consumer demand is going to be significantly impacted as a result of the shelves in food store emptying and truckers being laid off. The container ships from China are down from a 1/3rd starting next week. West Coasts are seeing a 1/3rd drop of ships coming to the United States starting next week.

      One point that Appollo Management did not make is that Amazon will have their worst “Prime day” in July this year in the history of the company. Amazon has a reputation of laying off employees in a very reactive mode. Amazon employs so many Americans and International employees who will be immediately impacted by a bad Prime day. Jeff Bezos was asked not to put a tariff on consumer goods, which he probably will not honor as Jeff only cares about his own bottomline.

      To forecast the slowdown with Amazon, UPS recently announced it plans to layoff 20,000 employees AND reduce its partnership footprint with Amazon.

      General Motors, Kraft and Heinz are informing their investors they can not give earnings guidance in the upcoming quarter.

      As this massive tidle wave of ations that are wiping away trillions away from the stock market, the tariffs are throwing more fuel on to the fire of global inflation issue.

      In Q2 investors will notice further retraction and Q3, starting in July, is when the real recession begins.

    8. April Showers Tanking Markets

      The markets tanked over the past 2 days due to the unfair tariffs forced on some of the US’s most loyal trading partners. Stagflation is on its way in the 3rd quarter of this year.

      God Bless America Again – Bobby Bare