Category: LiberalLeft

Last week, Tony Pasquarello, Hedge fund leader of Goldman Sachs informed us to be “Responsibly Bullish” on the stock market. This is the equivalent of saying: “You can buy this car with over 100,000 miles and it PROBABLY won’t break down on you.” This remark is a hedge in and of itself, its essentially saying: I think the stock market will go up, but I’m not guaranteeing it, so be “responsible”.

This is everything that is wrong with corporate finance: You hear one thing, but don’t really understand the fine print hidden in the message.

This author understands that this comment is a sham and proper representation of how to……

BULLSHIT responsibly

If you want a more prudent perspective on what will occur with the stock market listen to Tom Stevenson of Fidelity International:

“A stock market crash is right around the corner.”

The major stock indexes broke multiple records over the past couple months due to the lowering Treasuring Yields. All the banter on this blog that the stock market will crash is just a bunch pessimism from negative nellies who are upset with the election results on 2024. Face the reality….the stock market will continue to break records.

The Federal Reserve stating that stocks were “fairly highly valued” should provide some insight into the trajectory of the stock market. The Fed is cognizant that Inflation is increasing, unemployment is increasing and the further rate cuts will further destabilize the economy.

The cornerstone of the decision to cut interest rates is the Fed’s opinion on BOTH Inflation and Unemployment statistics, both of which are going in the wrong direction. The nomenclature spewed by the Federal Reserve today showcased nervousness, indecisiveness and the component the markets hate the most….

UNCERTAINTY!

Suns Up, Funs Up. This ingloriious overinflated stock market sham is about to be exposed.

AI is not helping the broader economy, it’s hurting the few vulnerable customer support roles that can be replaced by machines.

in 2008 didn’t we learn what happens when the unemployment rate and inflation risks catch up to the Stock market?

The brokers and retail traders danced all summer long to an AI – artificially inflated stock market, and the manifestation of their actions will force them to reflect on their self-indulgant behavior…..

IT’S TIME TO PAY THE PIPER!

The recent AI bubble has me questioning whether the stock market is really acting in a prudent matter to all the inflated stock prices.

Is Artificial Intelligence taking over the world or are these artificial earnings?

Do you need AI to conduct any of the basic core necessities in life? Eating, drinking, housing, mating, driving…. Even non-essentials like searching the internet or writing a paper for school or work?

AI is great for accomplishing repetitive tasks by a machine that human beings have normally completed. AI does not solve any of the core necessities of life. It’s a nice to have, not a need to have.

AI is currently the prettiest girl in the ballroom with the stock market ogling anything AI related. As our economy starts to lose permanent jobs replaced by machine robots, we will quickly realize that none of our core essentials were solved with AI and in contrast the core essentials of life were damaged by AI due to the labor loss. The prettiest girl in the ballroom will morph into an old, wrinkled witch with tons of complaints before our very eyes during the Halloween season and the stock market will crash.

The “bad news” interest rate cuts were injected into the economy today decreasing the federal fund rate to 4%-4.25%.

Why would an interest rate cut be bad for the economy and soon the stock market?

-A 25 basis point cut won’t impact Borrowing much, but it does signal that the Fed is nervous about the economy, effectively promoting a rate cut.

-Inflation is still increasing. The decision to cut the federal fund rate as inflation is rising is an oddball move that will have cascading impacts to our economic balance.

-We are at an inflection point that we are at a crossroads where the bad economy is about to catch up to the stock market.

-The AI bubble can’t will burst, and China pushing back on adopting NVDIA’s chips are the turning point.

-Most important! The unemployment rate is gradually climbing, most likely a result of AI stealing customer support and repetitive task jobs. Blue collar jobs are now the stable labour market.

The end of the 3 rd quarter is when the economy is going to catch up to the artificially inflated stock market.

Let your Love Flow – Bellamy Brothers

Wednesday – July 30th, 2025 – The Feds did not cut rates today because they know what most economists already know:

The recent tariffs introduced are going to push up prices, and ultimately increase inflation. Tariffs == New Taxes, very simple formula. Sales taxes on imports where the consumers are the passthrough $.75 on the dollar.

The big beautiful betrayal bill is only created to enrich billionaires. The impact of this bill will impact the lower and middle class directly after food and retail prices start skyrocket. The tariffs themselves will not be paid for by the countries who agreed to those tariffs. Instead they will be paid for by the average consumer.

The larger population will realize this reality in August, September and the final quarter of the year when food, clothes, laundry, household cleaning prices actually increase. The overinflated stock market will react to the elevated CPI and increase inflation. It’s synonymous to a case of the snake swallowing the rodent. There’s not enough AI propoganda to intercept the upcoming recession.

With a wide grin on his face, Anthropic’s CEO, Dario Amodei the dominance of AI is currently eliminating entry level jobs and positions that are repetitive in nature. While this author will not report Darios, highly subjective percentage estimates, what is valuable to note are the jobs that he is pinpointing will be eliminated….Jobs that a machine which does not contribute to economies GDP.

AI is not only the future, it is here now and is having an impact on job production and job losses in all sectors of the US economy. This is another factor that will have a tsunami effect on the stock market in Q3 of this year.

Thank you to all who have contributed to this blog over the past couple of months. Quarter 3 starts on July 1st, 2025. With the recent tariff threats placed on the EU and the looming situation with China which is current on an 90 day interim hold, does any think these two events will not have a major impact on the stock market this summer?

Combine the devaluing of the US dollar and the resulting impact this is having on treasury yields, this blog predicts the recession is coming in the third quarter of this year.

Additionally, the unemployment benefits of all the federal employees who were laid off 3 months ago with DOGE’s cuts will start to run out shortly. The private sector is in a stagnant state of significant job growth due to the increasing presence of AI technologies replacing the need for human beings.

Take a note where the economy starts on July 1st, 2025 and where it ends on September 30th, 2025.

After hearing an interview from from Apollo Management today, this author thinks this blog has a point related to a recession coming in the summer.

Appollo Management’s point was that consumer demand is going to be significantly impacted as a result of the shelves in food store emptying and truckers being laid off. The container ships from China are down from a 1/3rd starting next week. West Coasts are seeing a 1/3rd drop of ships coming to the United States starting next week.

One point that Appollo Management did not make is that Amazon will have their worst “Prime day” in July this year in the history of the company. Amazon has a reputation of laying off employees in a very reactive mode. Amazon employs so many Americans and International employees who will be immediately impacted by a bad Prime day. Jeff Bezos was asked not to put a tariff on consumer goods, which he probably will not honor as Jeff only cares about his own bottomline.

To forecast the slowdown with Amazon, UPS recently announced it plans to layoff 20,000 employees AND reduce its partnership footprint with Amazon.

General Motors, Kraft and Heinz are informing their investors they can not give earnings guidance in the upcoming quarter.

As this massive tidle wave of ations that are wiping away trillions away from the stock market, the tariffs are throwing more fuel on to the fire of global inflation issue.

In Q2 investors will notice further retraction and Q3, starting in July, is when the real recession begins.