This website is used for posting daily business rants about the global economy, encouraging a political tailspin to each opinion. All points of view are welcome and will not be controlled by a moderator’s point of view. The blog supports business points of view from the Right (Conservative), Left (Liberal) and Independent political paradigms allowing guest authors to express their opinions regarding a potential upcoming recession.
The authors of this blog vehemently predict a recession coming in 2026, and spiralling downwards in the months, quarters and years to follow. We request our authors to articulate their economic predictions backed by objective, factual events or statements.
Category: LiberalLeft
Represents a Post from the Liberal Left political spectrum
The Federal Reserve stating that stocks were “fairly highly valued” should provide some insight into the trajectory of the stock market. The Fed is cognizant that Inflation is increasing, unemployment is increasing and the further rate cuts will further destabilize the economy.
The cornerstone of the decision to cut interest rates is the Fed’s opinion on BOTH Inflation and Unemployment statistics, both of which are going in the wrong direction. The nomenclature spewed by the Federal Reserve today showcased nervousness, indecisiveness and the component the markets hate the most….
Suns Up, Funs Up. This ingloriious overinflated stock market sham is about to be exposed.
AI is not helping the broader economy, it’s hurting the few vulnerable customer support roles that can be replaced by machines.
in 2008 didn’t we learn what happens when the unemployment rate and inflation risks catch up to the Stock market?
The brokers and retail traders danced all summer long to an AI – artificially inflated stock market, and the manifestation of their actions will force them to reflect on their self-indulgant behavior…..
The recent AI bubble has me questioning whether the stock market is really acting in a prudent matter to all the inflated stock prices.
Is Artificial Intelligence taking over the world or are these artificial earnings?
Do you need AI to conduct any of the basic core necessities in life? Eating, drinking, housing, mating, driving…. Even non-essentials like searching the internet or writing a paper for school or work?
AI is great for accomplishing repetitive tasks by a machine that human beings have normally completed. AI does not solve any of the core necessities of life. It’s a nice to have, not a need to have.
AI is currently the prettiest girl in the ballroom with the stock market ogling anything AI related. As our economy starts to lose permanent jobs replaced by machine robots, we will quickly realize that none of our core essentials were solved with AI and in contrast the core essentials of life were damaged by AI due to the labor loss. The prettiest girl in the ballroom will morph into an old, wrinkled witch with tons of complaints before our very eyes during the Halloween season and the stock market will crash.
The “bad news” interest rate cuts were injected into the economy today decreasing the federal fund rate to 4%-4.25%.
Why would an interest rate cut be bad for the economy and soon the stock market?
-A 25 basis point cut won’t impact Borrowing much, but it does signal that the Fed is nervous about the economy, effectively promoting a rate cut.
-Inflation is still increasing. The decision to cut the federal fund rate as inflation is rising is an oddball move that will have cascading impacts to our economic balance.
-We are at an inflection point that we are at a crossroads where the bad economy is about to catch up to the stock market.
-The AI bubble can’t will burst, and China pushing back on adopting NVDIA’s chips are the turning point.
-Most important! The unemployment rate is gradually climbing, most likely a result of AI stealing customer support and repetitive task jobs. Blue collar jobs are now the stable labour market.
The end of the 3 rd quarter is when the economy is going to catch up to the artificially inflated stock market.
Wednesday – July 30th, 2025 – The Feds did not cut rates today because they know what most economists already know:
The recent tariffs introduced are going to push up prices, and ultimately increase inflation. Tariffs == New Taxes, very simple formula. Sales taxes on imports where the consumers are the passthrough $.75 on the dollar.
The big beautiful betrayal bill is only created to enrich billionaires. The impact of this bill will impact the lower and middle class directly after food and retail prices start skyrocket. The tariffs themselves will not be paid for by the countries who agreed to those tariffs. Instead they will be paid for by the average consumer.
The larger population will realize this reality in August, September and the final quarter of the year when food, clothes, laundry, household cleaning prices actually increase. The overinflated stock market will react to the elevated CPI and increase inflation. It’s synonymous to a case of the snake swallowing the rodent. There’s not enough AI propoganda to intercept the upcoming recession.
With a wide grin on his face, Anthropic’s CEO, Dario Amodei the dominance of AI is currently eliminating entry level jobs and positions that are repetitive in nature. While this author will not report Darios, highly subjective percentage estimates, what is valuable to note are the jobs that he is pinpointing will be eliminated….Jobs that a machine which does not contribute to economies GDP.
AI is not only the future, it is here now and is having an impact on job production and job losses in all sectors of the US economy. This is another factor that will have a tsunami effect on the stock market in Q3 of this year.
Thank you to all who have contributed to this blog over the past couple of months. Quarter 3 starts on July 1st, 2025. With the recent tariff threats placed on the EU and the looming situation with China which is current on an 90 day interim hold, does any think these two events will not have a major impact on the stock market this summer?
Combine the devaluing of the US dollar and the resulting impact this is having on treasury yields, this blog predicts the recession is coming in the third quarter of this year.
Additionally, the unemployment benefits of all the federal employees who were laid off 3 months ago with DOGE’s cuts will start to run out shortly. The private sector is in a stagnant state of significant job growth due to the increasing presence of AI technologies replacing the need for human beings.
Take a note where the economy starts on July 1st, 2025 and where it ends on September 30th, 2025.
After hearing an interview from from Apollo Management today, this author thinks this blog has a point related to a recession coming in the summer.
Appollo Management’s point was that consumer demand is going to be significantly impacted as a result of the shelves in food store emptying and truckers being laid off. The container ships from China are down from a 1/3rd starting next week. West Coasts are seeing a 1/3rd drop of ships coming to the United States starting next week.
One point that Appollo Management did not make is that Amazon will have their worst “Prime day” in July this year in the history of the company. Amazon has a reputation of laying off employees in a very reactive mode. Amazon employs so many Americans and International employees who will be immediately impacted by a bad Prime day. Jeff Bezos was asked not to put a tariff on consumer goods, which he probably will not honor as Jeff only cares about his own bottomline.
To forecast the slowdown with Amazon, UPS recently announced it plans to layoff 20,000 employees AND reduce its partnership footprint with Amazon.
General Motors, Kraft and Heinz are informing their investors they can not give earnings guidance in the upcoming quarter.
As this massive tidle wave of ations that are wiping away trillions away from the stock market, the tariffs are throwing more fuel on to the fire of global inflation issue.
In Q2 investors will notice further retraction and Q3, starting in July, is when the real recession begins.
The markets tanked over the past 2 days due to the unfair tariffs forced on some of the US’s most loyal trading partners. Stagflation is on its way in the 3rd quarter of this year.
On Wednesday, April 2nd, 2025 the Trump administration plans to activate the Tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Both Canada and Mexico communicated their intention to impose retaliatory tariffs as a response in what they feel is a unprovoked, and unfair trade war. While this is occurring right after April fools, this is NO FOOLING MATTER!!!
The prices of Cars, imported alcohol, food prices will experience further increases. As no surprise due to the mass layoffs, Unemployment is also on the rise. The convergence of these 2 economic events can trigger an economic disaster similar to that of a NorthPole blizzard. Add on the investment of the annexation of Greenland as a potential introduction of the 51st of the United States and the overall GDP could start to nosedive.
The resulting consequences of these tariffs, rising unemployment and annexation attempt are going to take a few months to metastasize into a spiraling recession that we have not seen since 2008. Many economists predict that the stock market will have an immediate reaction in the first 2 weeks of April. However, the real long term resulting impacts will result in the stock marketing starting to slide at the end of the 3rd quarter into the final quarter of the year.
NoFluffBizRants 