NoFluffBizRants

This website is used for posting daily business rants about the global economy, encouraging a political tailspin to each opinion. All points of view are welcome and will not be controlled by a moderator’s point of view. The blog supports business points of view from the Right (Conservative), Left (Liberal) and Independent political paradigms allowing guest authors to express their opinions regarding a potential upcoming recession.

The authors of this blog vehemently predict a recession coming in 2026, and spiralling downwards in the months, quarters and years to follow. We request our authors to articulate their economic predictions backed by objective, factual events or statements.

Author: ShortPirate

  • Artificial Intelligence or Artificial Earnings?

    The recent AI bubble has me questioning whether the stock market is really acting in a prudent matter to all the inflated stock prices.

    Is Artificial Intelligence taking over the world or are these artificial earnings?

    Do you need AI to conduct any of the basic core necessities in life? Eating, drinking, housing, mating, driving…. Even non-essentials like searching the internet or writing a paper for school or work?

    AI is great for accomplishing repetitive tasks by a machine that human beings have normally completed. AI does not solve any of the core necessities of life. It’s a nice to have, not a need to have.

    AI is currently the prettiest girl in the ballroom with the stock market ogling anything AI related. As our economy starts to lose permanent jobs replaced by machine robots, we will quickly realize that none of our core essentials were solved with AI and in contrast the core essentials of life were damaged by AI due to the labor loss. The prettiest girl in the ballroom will morph into an old, wrinkled witch with tons of complaints before our very eyes during the Halloween season and the stock market will crash.

  • “Bad News” Cuts Injected

    The “bad news” interest rate cuts were injected into the economy today decreasing the federal fund rate to 4%-4.25%.

    Why would an interest rate cut be bad for the economy and soon the stock market?

    -A 25 basis point cut won’t impact Borrowing much, but it does signal that the Fed is nervous about the economy, effectively promoting a rate cut.

    -Inflation is still increasing. The decision to cut the federal fund rate as inflation is rising is an oddball move that will have cascading impacts to our economic balance.

    -We are at an inflection point that we are at a crossroads where the bad economy is about to catch up to the stock market.

    -The AI bubble can’t will burst, and China pushing back on adopting NVDIA’s chips are the turning point.

    -Most important! The unemployment rate is gradually climbing, most likely a result of AI stealing customer support and repetitive task jobs. Blue collar jobs are now the stable labour market.

    The end of the 3 rd quarter is when the economy is going to catch up to the artificially inflated stock market.

    Let your Love Flow – Bellamy Brothers

  • Blue Moon: Tariffs Confusion and Uncertainty.

    As evidenced by the 2008 crash, the number 1 reason the markets start to crash is an financial risk uncertainty. The recent 7-4 decision by a Federal Appellate court to reverse the tariffs instituted in the 2nd quarter fused with the decision to lift de minimis exemption is going to introduce a tremendous amount of confusion and spiraling uncertainty after the Labor day weekend.

    In the Federal Appellate Court rule, the US Court of International Trade (CIT) on Friday, 8/29/25 stated:

    “We affirm the CIT’s holding that the trafficking and reciprocal tariffs imposed by the challenged executive orders exceed the authority delegated to the President,” the majority held in the ruling. “We also affirm the CIT’s grant of declaratory relief that the orders are ‘invalid as contrary to law.’”

    The words Congress commonly uses when giving the President tariff authority (“duty,” “tariff,” etc.) are not in IEEPA and that Congress typically requires the President to adhere to various procedural and substantive requirements in tariff statutes.

    IEEPA is a very broadly-worded statute empowering the president to “deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States, if the president declares a national emergency with respect to such threat.” Often invoked by presidents in levying economic sanctions against foreign states and actors, IEEPA also empowers the president to “regulate … importation.”

    Similar to a 1975 court looking at tariffs Nixon imposed under IEEPA’s predecessor statute in 1971, the Federal Circuit suggested that any IEEPA tariffs would need to be far more bounded than what Trump has in fact done.

    Fe-fi-fo-fum, I smell the blood of summer 25 skyrocketing stock market momentum!

    The end is here. the werewolf ignites the Bear; Bad moon on the rise!

    1. Feds Don’t Cut Rates

      Wednesday – July 30th, 2025 – The Feds did not cut rates today because they know what most economists already know:

      The recent tariffs introduced are going to push up prices, and ultimately increase inflation. Tariffs == New Taxes, very simple formula. Sales taxes on imports where the consumers are the passthrough $.75 on the dollar.

      The big beautiful betrayal bill is only created to enrich billionaires. The impact of this bill will impact the lower and middle class directly after food and retail prices start skyrocket. The tariffs themselves will not be paid for by the countries who agreed to those tariffs. Instead they will be paid for by the average consumer.

      The larger population will realize this reality in August, September and the final quarter of the year when food, clothes, laundry, household cleaning prices actually increase. The overinflated stock market will react to the elevated CPI and increase inflation. It’s synonymous to a case of the snake swallowing the rodent. There’s not enough AI propoganda to intercept the upcoming recession.

    2. Q3 is Here! The bill is BIG, but not beautiful!

      Q3 2025 is here: This is the tipping point of the market entering a long-term depression. The banality of cruelty of the Big Beautiful bill will eat away at the stock market gains of May and June like a cancer. This bill is big, but far from beautiful as it will increase the national debt by $3 billion dollars.

      The financial impact this bill will have on those who rely on healthcare will have an catastrophic impact to the HealthCare systems who are forced to take in uninsured medicare patients.

    3. AI Dominance Here to Stay

      With a wide grin on his face, Anthropic’s CEO, Dario Amodei the dominance of AI is currently eliminating entry level jobs and positions that are repetitive in nature. While this author will not report Darios, highly subjective percentage estimates, what is valuable to note are the jobs that he is pinpointing will be eliminated….Jobs that a machine which does not contribute to economies GDP.

      AI is not only the future, it is here now and is having an impact on job production and job losses in all sectors of the US economy. This is another factor that will have a tsunami effect on the stock market in Q3 of this year.

    4. Q3 Coming Soon – Tariff Bonanaza

      Thank you to all who have contributed to this blog over the past couple of months. Quarter 3 starts on July 1st, 2025. With the recent tariff threats placed on the EU and the looming situation with China which is current on an 90 day interim hold, does any think these two events will not have a major impact on the stock market this summer?

      Combine the devaluing of the US dollar and the resulting impact this is having on treasury yields, this blog predicts the recession is coming in the third quarter of this year.

      Additionally, the unemployment benefits of all the federal employees who were laid off 3 months ago with DOGE’s cuts will start to run out shortly. The private sector is in a stagnant state of significant job growth due to the increasing presence of AI technologies replacing the need for human beings.

      Take a note where the economy starts on July 1st, 2025 and where it ends on September 30th, 2025.

    5. Tariffs on Cars Imports

      In the 2008 economic crash, what was one of the first industries impacted? Automative, specifically our big 3: 1.GM, 2.Ford and 3.Chrysller at the time. This had a major impact on the employees of these companies and the partners of these companies as well. This economic depression cause the Michigan governor to make one of the worst decisions in the history of water management by changing the water channels for the city of Flint.

      Today, March 26, 2025. the Trump Administration imposed Tariffs on imported cars will create further friction with our European allies, the European Union and our direct neighbors in Mexico and Canada. At the surface, this appears to be a great advantage for the Big 3 automakers of the United States: 1.GM 2.Ford. 3.Stellantis; Unfortunately these tariffs will also negatively impact the US automakers as well due to the forecasted increase in higher production costs due to tariffs’ effect on the auto supply chain. Anyone living in the Detroit areas knows that cost increases directly impact main street. If there are employees laid off due to these tariffs have to focus on our bare essentials of life, consumer spending wiithin the midwest region of our country is going to nosedive.

      The countries making these cars are going to respond with retaliatory tariff and travel restictions measures in the 2nd measures

      The combination of Layoffs, decrease in consumer spending and business revenge tactics that our foreign allies plan to surprise us with will result in a recession in the 3rd quarter of this year starting in July 1st, 2025?