Today the US-China war was confirmed. Earnings season was overall positive this week. Watch how the next earnings season plays out. China will not give up or give in. This whole showdown was procrastinated dating back to April. It’s on!
Author: ShortPirate
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China Countermeasures?
China retaliated with the threat of “countermeasures” in response to the future trade wars. Revisit China’s long history regarding how committed they are to not feeling like they are bullied by anyone to get a glimpse of how long this will last in the years ahead. To truly understand China’s importance on the US and global economy, one needs to fully understand the magnitude of China’s impact to the national debt and the production of consumer goods made in China.
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China Tariff’s – The straw that broke the camels back
The recent enforcements on China to levy “massive tariffs” was the triggering event for repercussions we are about to see in the stock market for the next 2 years. The stock market has been on a historic tear for the past 5 months, dating back to April 4th when the market tanked as a result of the tariff introduction. The real question we have to ask ourselves is: Did we really resolve the fear of the tariffs dating back to early April or did we just “kick the can” for 5 months and let AI enthusiasm dictate the market surge? No more room to kick the can when you’ve kicked it as far as it can go on a dead end ally. As Jamie Dimon correctly predicted, a major correction is in store for the stock markets. Time to face the music!
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Market Crash Wolf Totem
Stock and Bond Market crash coming Halloween 2025. Spreading Into 2026 and beyond
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Federal Government employees to be laid off
With the birth of AI bots taking over the private sector and more federal government employees being laid off the Unemployment rate will rise.
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Bottom of the 9th Inning
Leon Coopermann stated we are in the bottom of the 9th inning of this AI bull market. Citing a quote from Warren Buffet in the late 90’s before the first tech crash:
““Once a bull market gets under way, and once you reach the point where everybody has made money no matter what system he or she followed, a crowd is attracted into the game that is responding not to interest rates and profits but simply to the fact that it seems a mistake to be out of stocks,”
The Buffet indicator – ratio of US stock market to GDP has far exceeded its overvalued threshold of 217%.
Hope you got your shorts in this summer!
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Fed Undecisive on Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve stating that stocks were “fairly highly valued” should provide some insight into the trajectory of the stock market. The Fed is cognizant that Inflation is increasing, unemployment is increasing and the further rate cuts will further destabilize the economy.
The cornerstone of the decision to cut interest rates is the Fed’s opinion on BOTH Inflation and Unemployment statistics, both of which are going in the wrong direction. The nomenclature spewed by the Federal Reserve today showcased nervousness, indecisiveness and the component the markets hate the most….
UNCERTAINTY!
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Time to pay the piper
Suns Up, Funs Up. This ingloriious overinflated stock market sham is about to be exposed.
AI is not helping the broader economy, it’s hurting the few vulnerable customer support roles that can be replaced by machines.
in 2008 didn’t we learn what happens when the unemployment rate and inflation risks catch up to the Stock market?
The brokers and retail traders danced all summer long to an AI – artificially inflated stock market, and the manifestation of their actions will force them to reflect on their self-indulgant behavior…..
IT’S TIME TO PAY THE PIPER!
NoFluffBizRants 