Oil is skyrocketing due to the conflicts in the Middle East. This is having an impact on major enterprises involved in transportation, the farming industry and the average joe whose gas prices increased over 40% in the past 6 weeks. The Stock market is heading into correction area entering this week.
Author: ShortPirate
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Government shutdown on the horizon?
Senator Chuck Schumer is leading an effort to block the vote of DHS funding this Friday in the aftermath of the recent unfortunate events over the weekend in Minneapolis.
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EU threatens “Trade Bazooka”
Today in Davos the France and Canadian Prime Ministers sounded off on their disdain for the introduction of tariffs over the Greenland sale’s resistance. France rejected the proposed board of peace publicly today. Is the NATO alliance at risk of breaking up? What are the components of the Trade Bazooka? Will this lead to a 2nd “Cold War”?
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“Unnecessary and Irresponsible”
The Danish Prime Minister called the upcoming tariffs “Unnecessary and Irresponsible”. 57,000 faithful loyalists of the Danish prime minister are vehemently pushing back on the US annexation of Greenland.
What does this mean for the International Stock Market? the NATO partners, all of them, will suffer in the short term and longer trade cycles. This is the definition of volatility.
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Food Prices on the Rise – 3% Growth YoY
Food prices, an unavoidable expense for us all are on the rise 3% from last year. We all need to eat, which means we all need to spend more money on food. This intersection of a decreasing labor market is a recipe for a recession.
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Interest Rate Cuts amist Tariff-fueled Inflation
The move the Federal Reserve Board made this week to cut interest rates a 3rd time in the past 3 months sparks the risk of higher inflation. The labor market is slowing drastically and we will all see skyrocketing unemployment numbers in 2026. Inflation will increase due to the impact AI is having on the overall job market. Powell and his cronies know this. This is a bullying tactic to further drive up the stock market. This author would compare this move to a negative amortization loan…..You keep dropping your current montly payments only pay drastically in the long term future before you have to foreclose on your house. Bad move, short term gains, long term consequences.
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AI Tech Bubble Fear Skyrocketing
The results of this week’s NASDAQ stock market performance is evidence the fear of overpriced AI stocks are on the rise. the lack of a government bailout safety net also shows this could be bigger than the 2008 crash when the banks were bailed out after making very risky mortgage backed security bets.
Why? Because AI lives in server farms corporate offices and actual people live in the houses backed by the CDO’s. The consequences of the banks backing these mortgages going under, forced to sell those CDO houses, and put people on the street are much more CATASTROPHIC than overinflated AI, inhumane robots not meeting the value of their investments.
So who will be the real losers when this happens? The C-Suite of these AI companies? Even their employees who made millions on restricted company stock? No! The real losers will be the common stock holders who invested their life savings into this AI sham in West Ham.
FOLLOW Warren Buffet’s advice: GET
OUT NOW! Sell your stock and convert to short positions. Long puts
The big bad wolf is huffing and puffing, and about to blow this mfer down!
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Unemployment Statistics?
With the recent US Government shutdown the public has not received the unemployment statistics. Do we really expect the unemployment stats to improve with AI decimating the labor market more and more every month? How does the impact of laying off and furloughing government employees impact the unemployment statistics?
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“We’ll never yield”
As we embark on the upcoming US-China trade war negotiations its important to understand China’s mindset entering a war of any kind.
China will not back down on the negotiations points, specifically export controls on rare earth minerals and resulting tariffs China plans to inherit as a result.
China is adopting the foreign direct product rule, to restrict China’s access to US software. Recently China published their export controls in a WPS format making it impossible for anyone outside China to open the document.
While the US has been very optimisitic about making a fair trade deal to the media, there are some undercurrents to suggest otherwise:
-Make a deal with Australia for rare earth materials as a backup if the China deal does not workout.
-Laying out the terms of the deal in public media as opposed to behind closed doors. Maybe China is not interested in having behind closed doors meeting.
-China did not seem overly thrilled about their perception of time hacking backed by irrefutable evidence.
-China re-opening discussions about invading Taiwan for their rare-earth minerals. Interesting fact, the head of Nvidia is from Taiwan and China has banned use of all Nvidia chips sold in China.
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US-China Trade War: Critical 4 weeks ahead!
Much of the future of this years stock and bond market outlook, as well as next years (2026) trajectory is dependent on the trade negotiations with China.
Scott Bessent is meeting with the Chinese government to soften the recent tone ahead of next week’s critical meeting with the US and China top leaders.
If things go well, the stock market will surge. If things don’t go well, the triple digit tariffs go into effect, and the stock market will tank (see 10/10/25 results). Very simple.
The real question is: How does the recent allegations coming from the China government impact the sentiment of the negotiations?
We will know by mid November.
NoFluffBizRants 