Much of the future of this years stock and bond market outlook, as well as next years (2026) trajectory is dependent on the trade negotiations with China.
Scott Bessent is meeting with the Chinese government to soften the recent tone ahead of next week’s critical meeting with the US and China top leaders.
If things go well, the stock market will surge. If things don’t go well, the triple digit tariffs go into effect, and the stock market will tank (see 10/10/25 results). Very simple.
The real question is: How does the recent allegations coming from the China government impact the sentiment of the negotiations?
We will know by mid November.

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